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Jul 13, 2013

アフリカは日系製造業にとってはまだ暗黒大陸なのか


アフリカは日系製造業にとってはまだ暗黒大陸なのか

豊かな資源に支えられ経済成長を遂げるアフリカ。今後の主力消費地および製造地を担う「最後のフロンティア」として注目が集まる一方で、日系企業の動きは他国に比べて鈍い。アフリカ経済の現状と日系企業の動向について、日本貿易振興機構の高崎早和香氏に聞いた。

 最後のフロンティアとされるアフリカは製造業にとっても、攻略が必要となる地域だ。豊富な資源や労働力増加、中産階級の成長などがある他、2013年6月には「第5回アフリカ開発会議」が横浜市で開催されるなど(関連記事:製造業も熱視線、最後のフロンティア「アフリカ」をどう攻める?)、アフリカへの注目は高まっている。

 しかし、日系企業にとっては距離の問題に加え、地域情報がよく分からない点、安全性の問題などから、積極的な進出には二の足を踏む企業が多いのが現状だ。そこで本稿では、日本貿易振興機構(JETRO、ジェトロ)海外調査部 中東アフリカ課の高崎早和香氏に、アフリカの経済情勢や企業進出の問題点などについて聞いた。(前編)では主にアフリカ経済の現状と日本企業の進出状況を、(後編)では問題点と今後期待される国などをお伝えする。


2000年代に入りアフリカは急成長

JETRO海外調査部 中東アフリカ課の高崎早和香氏 JETRO海外調査部 中東アフリカ課の高崎早和香氏

 1990年代はずっと低成長が続いていたアフリカだが2000年代に入りアフリカへの注目度は急速に高まっている。

 ここ数年、アフリカが注目されている理由として、主に3つのポイントがあるといわれている。1つ目が経済の急成長だ。アフリカの名目GDP総額は、2001年が5800億ドルだったのに対し、2011年には約3.3倍となる1兆9100億ドルに急成長している。GDP成長率も落ち込む時期もあったものの常に世界平均を上回っており、成長基調が続いている。

 2つ目が、貿易の拡大だ。経済の成長により内需が拡大し、輸出先の市場としてアフリカが見込めるようになってきた。世界の対アフリカ輸出額を見てみると、2011年は2001年の4.2倍となる5696億円となり、大きな成長を遂げている。

 3つ目が世界からアフリカへの投資の急増だ。アフリカへの直接投資額は急拡大しており、2002年に1665億3500万ドルだったのが、2011年には5695億5900万ドルとなるなど、実に3.4倍に急成長を遂げている。

アフリカ経済の推移 アフリカ経済の推移(出典:国連、JETROまとめ)(クリックで拡大)

成長の鍵は「資源」

 これら全ての鍵となっているのが「資源」だ。高崎氏はアフリカ急成長の理由として「資源価格の高騰が大きな要因だ」と指摘する。「中国やインドなど新興国市場の成長により、多くの資源が多様な国々で消費されるようになり、資源が不足した。そのため資源価格が慢性的に高騰。アフリカは、たくさんの資源を抱える上、開発の手が行き届いていないところも多い。そのため資源を求める多くの投資がアフリカに集まり、それがアフリカ経済を支え、中産層の育成を進めることになった」と話す。

 特にリーマンショック以降は先進国景気が低迷したのに対し、アフリカはそれほど落ち込まず、右肩上がりの傾向が続き世界での存在感が高まったという。また人口増加も顕著で今後大きな市場としての成長が期待されている。国際連合の調査によると2011年のアフリカの人口は約10億5400万人で、世界の人口の7分の1を占める。これが2050年には約22億1700万人になると予測。世界人口の5人に1人以上がアフリカの人々になる見込みだという。

アフリカが成長しているのはわかるが、いかんせん日本にとっては未知な要素が多すぎる・・・。
フランスやベルギーあたりと組むのがいいのでは??

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