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Dec 30, 2012

2012年のタブレットを冷静に振り返る

2012年のタブレットを冷静に振り返る (1/2)

iPad mini、Nexus 7、Surface、Kindle Fire HD……。刺激的な製品が多数投入された2012年のタブレット市場だが、業界全体のメガトレンドとしてはゆったりしたものだった。 [実は落ち着いた展開だったと言える2012年 「2011年のタブレット端末を冷静に振り返る」という前回の記事から、はや1年が過ぎていることに少しばかり驚きを感じている。最新のデジタル機器トレンドの最先端と思われがちなタブレットデバイスだが、2012年は比較的、平穏な年だったと思うからだ。

ついにMicrosoftもWindows 8/RTのリリースに合わせて、純正タブレット「Surface」を投入したが……(日本では未発売) 「いやいや、Windows 8/RTタブレットだって発売されたし、Nexus 7はワールドワイドで月100万台の売り上げを出してiPadファミリーに次ぐ勢力を着々と作ってるじゃない」と反論されそうだが、個々のソリューションとしてはよい製品、興味深い製品が登場した。そうした意味では、とても刺激的な1年だったが、業界全体のメガトレンドとしてはゆったりとしたものだった、と感じている。

 2011年には、ソニーが「Sony Tablet」を立ち上げ、独自のクラウド型サービスとAndroidへの独自機能搭載によって、ブランド構築を狙うという(残念ながら、その成果は成功とは言いがたいものの)実に意欲的、挑戦的なテーマがあった。「iPad」も伸び盛り(いや、2012年も一層伸びてはいるが)で、新しいアプリが次々に生まれ、いよいよ“パーソナルコンピューティング”という言葉の定義が変化するのだ、と肌で空気が変化するのを感じたものだ。

 その2011年に比べると、2012年はより落ち着いた展開だったように思う。“落ち着いた”との表現は、“何も起こらなかった”ということを意味しているわけではない。前述したように興味深い製品は数多く出ていた。

 しかし、プラットフォーム全体に大きな波風は立たず、粛々と各メーカーがこれから爆発するだろうタブレット市場への取り組みを決め、将来の大きな市場に向けた準備を進めた年だったと言える。

2012年も主役はiPad、今後の鍵を握るAndroid 2012年もタブレット市場をリードしたiPadファミリー。10月には7.9型の「iPad mini」も登場し、ラインアップを7型クラスまで拡充してきた 北米を中心に、コンシューマーPC市場を浸食しているタブレット市場だが、世界のタブレット市場をリードしている米国では、多くがiPadファミリーと言われる。App Storeで販売されるタブレットに最適化されたアプリが充実しているだけでなく、関連するさまざまな周辺機器や連携製品なども合わせ、新しいビジネス基盤として認知されつつある。

 とはいえ、タブレット市場は10月にiPadが累計1億台の販売達成を発表。2012年通期の出荷台数は全タブレット合計で約1億2000万台程度と見積もられている。Windows PCの稼働台数は全世界で10億台と言われており、年間の出荷台数は3億5000万台程度というのが相場なので、PCに比べればタブレット市場の規模はまだ小さい。言い換えると、まだまだ伸びる余地がある有望市場ということだ。

 AppleのCEOを務めるティム・クック氏は「2013年に1億台のiPadを販売する」と話しているが、ディスプレイパネルの供給状況次第ではその予想を上回る可能性もある。さらに2013年はAndroid、Windowsのタブレットも増加が見込まれる。

Androidタブレットはスマートフォン同様、今後のシェア拡大が見込まれる。写真は上から、4.7型スマートフォンの「Nexus 4」、7型タブレットの「Nexus 7」、10型タブレットの「Nexus 10」(Nexus 4は日本で未発売) Androidはタブレットの普及にともない、スマートフォンでの展開と同じように、低価格製品を中心として台数シェアを伸ばしていく展開になるだろう。高付加価値市場での競争も激しくなる。また、Windows 8/RTタブレットは企業向けを中心にシェアを徐々に増やしていくことも予想される展開だ。通期ではiPadのシェアが40%、あるいはそれ以下になる可能性もある。

 仮にiPadファミリーの市場占有を40%とするならば、2013年は2億5000万台市場になる(実際には液晶パネルの供給に問題が発生するかもしれない)が、米調査会社のIDCは、2013年のタブレット市場を1億7240万台と見積もっている。Appleの1億台販売計画が過剰な見積もりと考えるならば、2億台とするのが妥当なところだろうか。

 とはいえ、タブレット市場の伸び方はスマートフォンのときと同じく、あまりに急峻(きゅうしゅん)なため、予測値の上方修正が相次いでおり、2億5000万という数字も(生産キャパシティがあるならば)非現実的とは言えないだろう。この数字がどこまで行くか、その行方の鍵を握っているのはAppleではなく、Googleだと筆者は考えている。

 価格競争、シェア競争の中で出荷台数が伸びていくには、メーカー間の競争や、携帯電話事業者をはじめとする通信事業者との協業が必要だと思うからだ。この点、同じプラットフォーム上で複数メーカーが共存しているほうが(メーカーとしての利益は出にくいが)、普及期には台数が伸びていく。

 GoogleがGoogle Playのアプリ、コンテンツサービスの洗練度に磨きをかけることができたならば、数年後には現在のスマートフォン市場と同じような基本ソフトのシェアミックスになると思う。


伸びてはいても一大変化という感じでないのは確か。

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